Hyperliquid Prediction Markets: HIP-4 Outcomes, Fees and Access

What are Hyperliquid prediction markets (HIP-4)?

Hyperliquid's docs do not use the phrase "prediction market" for a product name. The feature is called outcome markets, added to HyperCore by HIP-4, and the docs describe it as "a general-purpose primitive that is useful for applications such as prediction markets and bounded options-like instruments". In the app it is the Outcomes page in the top menu.

An outcome is a dated contract with two sides, each its own token. The protocol launched it with one market, a recurring BTC contract; the first one in the API expired on May 3, 2026. Since then third-party deployers have added sports, economics, company and award markets, and the protocol runs daily price contracts on several coins. Unlike a perpetual, an outcome has an end date, needs no margin beyond the price you pay, and cannot be liquidated: the most you can lose is what you paid for the shares.

How does a HIP-4 outcome contract work?

• Two sides, one price. The sides are listed in the API's outcomeMeta, often Yes and No. A Yes price of 0.62 means the market prices a 62% chance; the app shows it as "% Chance". The Yes and No order books are merged, so buying Yes at p is the same order as selling No at 1 − p, and both sides share one pool of liquidity.
• Settlement. At expiry each Yes share converts into the settle fraction in USDC and each No share into 1 minus it: 1 and 0 for a plain Yes or No result. Third-party standalone markets may settle to a fraction in between. You do not have to do anything; the balance appears automatically.
• Who decides the result. In the app's wording, recurring contracts settle "based on the mark price", other protocol outcomes "based on validator vote", and third-party outcomes are settled "by the deployer". For the recurring price contracts the docs give the formula: Yes wins if the mark price, interpolated to the exact settlement second, is at or above the target.
• Questions. A question groups several outcomes where exactly one settles to Yes, such as a match with three possible results, plus a Fallback for anything not listed (Fallback shares are not tradable). Advanced users can split 1 USDC into one Yes and one No share, merge them back, or negate a No share into Yes shares on every other outcome of the question.

Related:Hyperliquid Order Types (2026): Limit, Post-Only, Reduce-Only

Which prediction markets can you trade on Hyperliquid?

The list changes every day as matches end and new contracts open, so this section reads Hyperliquid's public API at every build. On November 3, 2026, 12:27 UTC, it listed 336 outcomes, of which 302 tradable, and 34 questions, all quoted in USDC.

The protocol's own contracts: BTC, ETH, HYPE and SOL each have a daily “at or above the target price?” contract, and BTC also has a daily three-range contract (below, between or above two price levels), settling at 06:00 UTC. These are deployed and settled automatically by the protocol, with no third party involved.

Hyperliquid info API (outcomeMeta and spotMetaAndAssetCtxs), November 3, 2026 12:27 UTC. Volume is the API's 24-hour notional volume summed over every Yes and No token. Categories are ours, from each market's on-chain template name.

Volume is concentrated: sports results and tournaments carried about 83% of the 24-hour total in this reading, and one third-party venue (out) about 98% of all outcome volume. Many listed contracts trade little or nothing, which matters for the spread you pay (see the risks below).

Hyperliquid prediction market fees

Four sources agree on how outcome fees work today: Hyperliquid's fee page ("Outcome trading only charges fees when closing or settling, not when opening outcome positions"), the HIP-4 deployer docs, trade[XYZ]'s Events fee page ("base outcome-trading rates, which use the spot fee schedule"), and the app's own fee preview. Public fills we read on October 22, 2026 matched them.

• Buying is free, taker or maker: the app says "Buy orders pay no taker or maker fee."
• Selling pays your spot fee rate on the sale value: 0.070% taker / 0.040% maker at the base tier, lower at higher volume tiers or with a HYPE staking discount.
• Holding to settlement counts as closing. In the fills we sampled, winning shares paid the account's spot taker rate on the payout; shares that settle at 0 pay nothing.
• No maker rebates. A maker order that would earn a rebate on perps or spot pays zero on outcomes.
• Deployer fees. A third-party market sets a deployer fee scale from 0 to 10; you pay the base rate times the scale plus the larger of the scale and 1. At scale 1 that is 2×, half of it to the deployer. trade[XYZ] set its scale to 0.
• Volume and your fee tier: only fee-paying outcome trades count toward your fee tier, and they count double, like spot (the app's wording).

Multiplier from each venue's deployer fee scale in the API (November 3, 2026) and the docs' formula; base rates are Hyperliquid's tier-0 spot fees. Buys pay nothing on every venue.

Worked example. You buy 100 Yes shares at 60¢ ($60.00): no fee. Selling them later at the same price as a taker costs $0.042 on a protocol or trade[XYZ] market and $0.084 on a scale-1 venue. If you hold and Yes wins, the 100 USDC payout pays the taker rate, $0.070 on a protocol market.

Two cautions. The HIP-4 overview page still says fees are "currently zero ... for initial testing"; the other sources above show that is out of date, so trust the fee line in the order form. And the 4% HOLYGRAIL referral discount on outcome fees is observed, not documented: Hyperliquid's referral page promises it on "your fees" without naming outcomes. In public fills we read on October 22, 2026, accounts with a referral discount paid 0.96× the normal rate on outcome sells and settlements; Hyperliquid's docs do not state this. The full perp and spot schedule: Hyperliquid fees.

Can you use Hyperliquid prediction markets in Japan, the UK or the US?

Outcome markets have their own exclusion on top of the general one. Hyperliquid's Terms of Use (last updated June 15, 2026, re-read October 22, 2026) say:

• §1.6, everyone: the interface is not available to people in the United States or Ontario, Canada, in sanctioned territories, or to citizens of sanctioned territories. That covers outcomes too.
• §§1.7–1.8, outcomes only: outcome markets "are not available to Excluded Persons", meaning people "subject to the laws of certain jurisdictions that we designate from time to time", or anyone for whom access "would be unlawful or would require ... any license ... that has not been obtained". Hyperliquid "may implement technical, operational or other measures designed to block access to the outcome markets tab", and you must not get around them. The Terms publish no list of designated jurisdictions.

The list lives in the app instead. Its location check (legalCheck) has two answers that switch outcomes off, HideOutcomes and a UK mode (both read from the app's code on October 22, 2026). From a Japanese connection on October 22, 2026 it returned HideOutcomes: perps stay on, outcomes disappear, and opening an outcome page shows this notice: "Outcome market features are not available in your jurisdiction. This restriction applies only to outcome markets; other features may remain available." The UK mode we know only from the app's code, not from a UK connection: there it hides outcomes and also blocks referral links (details on our Hyperliquid UK page). Other countries may be added at any time, since the Terms let Hyperliquid designate them. trade[XYZ]'s own interface separately excludes the US, Canada, the UK and sanctioned territories (Japan not named; the operator may add jurisdictions).

If the tab is hidden for you, that is the rule, not a fault to work around: Terms §3.1.5 forbid VPNs and proxies used to hide your location. Country-by-country detail for the rest of Hyperliquid: Hyperliquid restricted countries.

How to trade Hyperliquid outcome markets, step by step

These steps follow the docs and the app's interface text; we could not open the Outcomes tab ourselves because it is hidden from our connection, so there is no screenshot.

1. Fund a Hyperliquid account with USDC. Outcomes are paid for in the quote token, like a spot purchase (deposits start at 5 USDC). How to deposit on Hyperliquid.
2. Open Outcomes in the top menu. The page groups markets by category with a search box and a venue filter. If a red notice says outcome features are not available in your jurisdiction, stop here.
3. Read the market's terms. For a third-party market the app first shows the HIP-4 deployer disclaimer, which you accept per deployer. In the app's words, third-party outcome markets "are surfaced based on onchain activity and are not reviewed, verified, or approved".
4. Pick a side and a price. Buy Yes or No (or a named side) with a limit price or at market. The order form shows the fee line: zero for buys.
5. Exit. Sell before the end date (the sell fee applies), or hold to settlement and receive 1 USDC per winning share minus the fee. "Close All Outcomes" closes every outcome position at once.

Hyperliquid vs Polymarket: how the prediction markets differ

Polymarket is the best-known prediction market, and the comparison readers search for. These are the documented differences, not a ranking; Polymarket's figures are from its docs, read October 22, 2026.

Two practical consequences. Fees: Polymarket's taker fee peaks at a 50¢ price and is charged to the taker on every trade, while Hyperliquid charges only on the way out, at a flat rate of the trade value, so a round trip in a busy Hyperliquid market is usually cheaper on fees; spreads and liquidity can easily outweigh that. Access: the close-only list in Polymarket's docs is the wider of the two, so "use Polymarket instead" is not an answer for readers in the UK, Japan or South Korea. Polymarket's separate perpetuals exchange is a different product: Polymarket Perps vs Hyperliquid. Some Hyperliquid front ends embed Polymarket's markets rather than HIP-4, for example the Based app.

Polymarket vs Hyperliquid odds on Bitcoin, Ethereum and HYPE (live)

Both venues list Yes/No contracts on crypto prices. Hyperliquid's protocol runs a daily "at or above" contract on BTC, ETH, SOL and HYPE, and third-party HIP-4 venues add "touches X by" and "above X at" contracts. Polymarket runs daily "Bitcoin above ___ on …" ladders and monthly "What price will Bitcoin hit" ladders. The first table puts each Hyperliquid contract next to Polymarket's closest question, from both public APIs read on November 3, 2026, 12:27 UTC. A Yes price of 46¢ means the market prices a 46% chance. These are the markets' prices, not our forecast or a recommendation.

Who creates outcome markets? HIP-4 deployers and their stake

Anyone who meets the deployer rules can launch outcome markets on HyperCore, but only from templates that Hyperliquid validators vote on. A template fixes the market's wording, side names and the kind of values it accepts (a date, a perp name, a number), plus a "semantic restriction" describing what the market may mean; in the docs' words, markets that contradict their template's intended meaning are "considered malformed and slashable by validators". Deployers must keep a HYPE staking requirement for as long as they are active (the docs page does not state the amount), cannot deactivate before 183 days and choose their deployer fee scale per market.

On November 3, 2026 the API listed 4 registered deployer venues (fox, out, skew and txyz), 4 of them with live markets. One is documented by its operator: txyz is trade[XYZ]'s Events, whose docs say Up/Down markets resolve on a five-minute TWAP of the referenced Hyperliquid market; sports markets use ESPN unless the market terms say otherwise. The others are identified on-chain only by their venue name, so read each market's terms and the deployer disclaimer before trading. The deployer docs page itself is still labelled "Testnet-only", although these venues trade on mainnet. The perp-side counterpart, where builders deploy their own perpetual markets, is HIP-3.

Risks of Hyperliquid prediction markets

• Settlement disputes. A third-party market is settled by its deployer from an off-chain source. The Terms (§2.3) say you have no recourse for "disputed settlement, outcome determination, redemption or payout of any outcome market"; slashing punishes a bad deployer but does not refund you.
• Thin books. Many listed contracts trade little or nothing in a day. A wide spread costs far more than the sell fee, and you may not be able to exit before settlement.
• Total loss is normal. A share that settles at 0 is worth nothing. The Terms (§2.4) name "immediate and total loss and illiquidity" as a risk of outcome markets.
• Insider information. The app forbids trading on material non-public information ("Using or sharing material non-public information that could affect prices or the resolution of an outcome market is prohibited."), and the Terms say Hyperliquid does not warrant that any market is free of it, so you may be trading against someone who knows more.
• Local law. Contracts on sports or events fall under gambling or derivatives law in many countries, and access can be withdrawn when Hyperliquid designates a new jurisdiction. Check your own rules; Terms §1.9 put that on you.

FAQ

Disclosure: HOLYGRAIL is our Hyperliquid referral code; we earn a share of referred accounts' fees at no cost to you. bltz13 is our Polymarket referral code, used in one link in the closing box below the Hyperliquid link and meant only for readers outside Polymarket's restricted list. Market counts, volumes and the odds tables are read from Hyperliquid's and Polymarket's public APIs at build time and refreshed in your browser; fee rules, Terms and app behaviour are from the sources named above, read on October 22, 2026. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade any market. Not investment advice.